I don't think you can call Federer overconfident, not today anyway. He has been a very humble guy and you could have made it out the way he played today. No screams no annoyance, just that his forehand winners were not connecting and his service deserted him at key times(and Djokovic's did not). Whenever there was a big moment Federer never put the big serve in while Djokovic fired an ace.
There is no doubt that Federer has not been at his best today. I won't however blame his form for the past close matches. Nadal has improved leaps and bounds from the "clay court wonder" he was. Wimbledon again, i remember Federer was no connecting his forehand winners. When you are in international tennis for so long, some other guys are bound to improve and from the top Federer can only go down now. Thats natural.
I disagree also that Djokovic was playing exceptionally well today. I think Federer was not strong enough to finish and take advantages of the breaks that he got. Take the last set. The 1st game and i think the 4th game off Djokovic Federer had break points but he did not deliver the winners. Even Tie Break he took the mini break and then put a simple volley into the net. Obviously his backhand is not his strong point. It never was. Fact is if this match had gone into 4th set i am willing to bet Djokovic would have lost. The guy did not have the stamina for another set. He was dead tired. Federer on the other hand had a determined look whe he came at 6-5 on Djokovic serve.
I really feel sorry for him that he was not at his best today. Djokovic was and deserved to win. But the champion will be back.vI have no doubt. Although Nadal at French Open is a tough nut to crack
But Wimbledon, i am willing to bet Fedex is going to rock.